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Contact us at info@theblackwillow.com.

OUR THESIS

BlackWillow conducts equity research using proprietary fundamental and technical models designed to evaluate companies within the context of the broader economy, sector, and industry in which they operate. Our research framework combines macroeconomic conditions, industry structure, company financials, valuation, and market behavior to produce a unified view of business quality, financial trajectory, and market positioning. Our "Quant" forecast product has an average win-rate of 85%, and our insitutional "Macro" product generates an alpha of 4.75 with Nasdaq Composite index as the baseline.

Sample reports

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At the company level, our fundamental models assess growth, profitability, margin development, capital efficiency, cash-flow quality, balance-sheet strength, reinvestment, and capital allocation across multiple reporting periods. These measures are normalized against relevant industry and sector peers, allowing the models to distinguish structural strength from characteristics that are simply typical for a particular business model. Valuation is incorporated alongside operating performance using earnings, cash flow, enterprise-value measures, and growth-adjusted comparisons rather than treated as a standalone screen.

Our technical models provide a separate layer of analysis across price structure, momentum, trend, liquidity, volume behavior, and longer-term market positioning. Quantitative outputs are then supplemented with qualitative research into competitive dynamics, management strategy, catalysts, regulatory exposure, and material risks. The result is not a fixed screening procedure or a single algorithm, but an ensemble of models to build our research infrastructure that combines fundamental, technical, and contextual evidence to build a more complete view of each publicly traded company.

Our Products

Quant

Live

An applied AI research platform for U.S. equities, combining structural economic context, model-ranked forecast books, stock-level targets, and realized validation.

  • Long, short, and sector forecast books with an average 85% win-rate
  • Realized performance, watchlists, stock-level target trails, and historical validation
  • Stock-level drilldowns with fundamentals, regime context, live news, and peer comparison
  • Specialized Willow research assistant and AI agents for market analysis, stock summaries, and workflows

Macro

New

Regime-focused research for tracking liquidity, rates, inflation, and policy pressure through a structured causal framework.

  • Daily macro regime scorecard
  • Event-impact and policy transmission views
  • Signal timelines for shifting market states
  • Our live portfolio generates an alpha of 4.75 using Nasdaq Composite as the baseline
  • Specialized Willow research assistant and AI agents for macroeconomic and fundamental analysis, summaries and workflows

Research

Institutional

An advanced research framework combining optimization, economics, and institutional-grade signal design for deeper decision systems.

  • Optimization pipelines for portfolio construction and risk budgets
  • Economics-led regime modeling and factor decomposition
  • Institutional research workflows for businesses and hedge funds
  • Top-down sector and industry propagation with peer comparison
This Product